Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 35.434961 40.007731 45.382651 52.290162 61.125641 72.344001 88.201528
2025-05-18 28.675805 34.102449 41.103641 51.194442 66.152201 89.125456 131.488559
2025-05-25 24.797534 30.607386 38.639242 51.328777 72.755756 112.650043 215.233482
2025-06-01 21.953416 27.825791 36.366229 50.858968 78.184550 139.453760 378.607379
2025-06-08 19.777533 25.566839 34.316311 50.030525 82.579118 169.924711 772.451650
2025-06-15 18.121299 23.800251 32.657021 49.349174 86.987490 208.397825 2494.996081
2025-06-22 16.841372 22.421425 31.364613 48.963646 91.977539 261.345072 NaN
2025-06-29 15.628462 21.002077 29.779638 47.594713 93.853178 309.808970 NaN
2025-07-06 15.218877 20.799736 30.238234 50.544989 110.091398 532.836726 NaN
2025-07-13 14.393337 19.832148 29.187824 49.916216 114.802746 730.109874 NaN
2025-07-20 13.794270 19.182888 28.633987 50.305965 123.826919 1231.973771 NaN
2025-07-27 13.288279 18.643595 28.214685 50.923389 134.754607 2778.478926 NaN
2025-08-03 12.769095 18.048556 27.635292 51.061576 144.486515 11683.318985 NaN
2025-08-10 12.195098 17.317803 26.713953 50.114305 148.417575 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.778660 16.834473 26.238439 50.293974 159.413940 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.346432 16.293872 25.592158 49.862650 166.853144 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.921377 15.740172 24.868675 49.071150 171.570736 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.541700 15.246645 24.228996 48.415919 177.131298 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.213298 14.827926 23.712247 48.044524 185.126781 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.837278 14.303412 22.930464 46.718392 183.900768 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.786247 14.371599 23.428135 49.578189 228.391404 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.501251 13.989262 22.905362 48.969317 236.193490 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.297673 13.749388 22.680994 49.347002 258.615815 NaN NaN